Daily Murders in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent During President Sheinbaum, Per Government Data

The average number of everyday killings each month in the country has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by fresh official figures. But, public safety experts have advised that homicide numbers may not signal improved national stability.

Notable Decline in Daily Averages

There was an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to nearly 87 when the President began the presidential office in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the director of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we have seen during these past months is very significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that in November the least figure of homicides were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Violent cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate over four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an apparently more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state said: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The central pillars of the President's safety plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced collaboration between various agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security researchers urged caution that focusing solely on murder data to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is notably true considering the rise in other crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be excellent news if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

As reported by the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe last year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer valid for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the desire to properly identify and classify bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was also problematic because it may hide days when there were especially high levels of killings.

“Employing the daily average renders spikes of violence less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, per official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

But despite these actions, Mexico remains plagued by severe bloodshed, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to express their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to create a narrative of safety. Politically it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” the analyst said.