Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
