Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.