Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
