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In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he became the fifth UK leader to occupy the position in six years.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its fifth prime minister in 24 months – with three in the last ten months?

The latest prime minister, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the price for his administration's continuation.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for decades – perhaps not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Governing Without a Majority

Key background: ever since Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament split into three opposing factions – the left, far right and his own centre-right alliance – without any group holding a clear majority.

At the same time, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and deficit are now nearly double the EU threshold, and hard constitutional deadlines to approve a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In mid-September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be largely unchanged from before – he encountered anger from allies and opponents alike.

To such an extent that the next day, he resigned. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a respectful address, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for another 48 hours in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a task, to put it mildly, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers openly criticized the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, vowing to reject all future administrations unless there were early elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to prevent a vote. The leader's team confirmed the president would appoint a new prime minister two days later.

Macron kept his promise – and on that Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who oppose Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were waiting for: Macron’s flagship reform would be suspended until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already supportive, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those ballots, due on Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be demanding further compromises. “This,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

A Cultural Shift

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR seek his removal.

To achieve that, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in two years is, like his predecessors, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by some miracle, the divided parliament musters collective will to pass a budget by year-end, the outlook afterward look grim.

So is there a way out? Snap elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his successor would disband the assembly and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that France’s voters, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that cultural shift will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”