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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's protracted campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the leadership if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and achieve an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.