War-torn Myanmar Votes in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the polls under a new law which carries harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that resistance forces have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will compete only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a military representative stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".